NASA/ESA's Mars Sample Return mission: Bayesian statistics
for planetary protection
October 7, 2026
3:00 pm PGH 646
Abstract
The Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission of NASA and ESA (European Space
Agency) involves the collection and return to Earth circa 2040 of
samples from the surface and atmosphere of Mars. A “Tiger Team” of
scientists, of which I was a member, released a report in 2024 on
planetary protection from potential biohazards in the returned
samples. This lecture develops the Bayesian statistical design used to
determine how many subsamples will be needed for biohazard testing.
There are no data available since the samples are still inside sample
tubes on Mars. However, there is prior astrobiological knowledge, and
a Bayesian statistical approach can direct how that knowledge can be
used. The number of subsamples is seen to depend on a prespecified
risk-tolerance threshold (e.g., one in a million) and three other
quantities that originate from the Bayesian design. Monte Carlo
simulation is used in a digital twin to compute the number of
subsamples needed for biohazard testing of each sample tube returned
from Mars.
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Last modified: April 11 2016 - 18:14:43