Probabilistic Methods for Differential Equations with
Uncertain Coefficients
October 9, 2013
3:00pm PGH 646
Abstract
We present a probabilistic approach to quantify parametric uncertainty in
first-order hyperbolic conservation laws. The approach relies on the
derivation of a deterministic equation for the cumulative distribution
function (CDF) of system states, in which probabilistic descriptions
(probability density functions or PDFs) of system parameters and/or initial
and boundary conditions serve as inputs. In contrast to PDF equations,
which are often used in other contexts, CDF equations allow for
straightforward and unambiguous determination of boundary conditions with
respect to sample variables. We demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of
our CDF approach in several settings that allow one to obtain closed-form,
semi-analytical solutions for the CDF of the state variables. The results
are tested and contrasted with Monte Carlo simulations and other
uncertainty quantification techniques.
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