In recent years there have been a number of highly publicized searches for
missing aircraft such as the ones for Air France flight AF 447 and Malaysia
Airlines flight MH 370.
Bayesian search theory provides a well-developed method for planning
searches for missing aircraft, ships lost at sea, or people missing on
land. The theory has been applied successfully to searches for the
missing US nuclear submarine Scorpion, the SS Central America (ship of
gold), and the wreck of AF 447. It is used routinely the by U. S.
Coast Guard to find people and ships missing at sea.
This talk presents the basic elements of the theory. It describes how
Bayesian search theory was used to locate the wreck of AF 447 after
two-years of unsuccessful search and discusses how it was applied to
the search for MH 370. A crucial feature of Bayesian search theory is
that it provides a principled method of combining all available
information about the location of a search object. This is
particularly important in one-of-a-kind searches such as the one for
AF 447 where there is little or no statistical data to rely upon.
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